California Governor margin of victory
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20261a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
Democrats, 12+ pts · —
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Livro recebido (não a hora da cotação da plataforma): —
Preço registado
Democrats, 12+ pts Compra–venda registada79%–85%Recolhido: Última transação: 86% · Hora da transação desconhecidaPreços como percentagem do pagamento, antes de taxas; estas observações registadas não são cotações executáveis.Líder entre 9 opções
Democrats, 12+ pts Compra–venda registada79%–85%Recolhido: Última transação: 86% · Hora da transação desconhecidaPreços como percentagem do pagamento, antes de taxas; estas observações registadas não são cotações executáveis.Qualidade do mercado
36 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
23,2 €
Contratos em aberto
1,4 mil €
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
— / —
Democrats, 12+ ptsSpread
—
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
14/09/26, 19:00 UTC3/11/27, 14:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Democrats, 12+ pts
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Livro recebido (não a hora da cotação da plataforma): —
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Regras de cada resultado
- Democrats, 12+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 15+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 18+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 21+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 24+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 27+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 30+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 33+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 33 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 36+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 36 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Polymarket — California Governor Election Margin of Victory · Becerra 25-30% 33%
