KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before January 1, 2028 27%Líder entre 3 opções
Before January 1, 2028 27%Qualidade do mercado
41 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Contratos em aberto
7,3 mil €
Contratos em aberto: médioSpread
6.8 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
7/01/26, 00:00 UTC1/01/27, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States?
KalshiLai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketLai Ching-te impeached by which date?
PolymarketLai Ching-te visits US by which date?
PolymarketWill Lai Ching-te (of the DPP party in Taiwan) still be alive by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegras
If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Regras de cada resultado
- Before January 1, 2028
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before July 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before January 1, 2027
- If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.