KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%Líder entre 5 opções
Lula da Silva, ≥1% 11%Qualidade do mercado
57 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
1,1 mil €
Contratos em aberto
1,1 mil €
Contratos em aberto: baixoSpread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 minutos
5/10/26, 21:00 UTC25/10/27, 14:00 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
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Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsRegras
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Regras de cada resultado
- Lula da Silva, ≥1%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥3%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥5%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥7%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Lula da Silva, ≥9%
- If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes.
