Will Raúl Castro be taken into US custody by the end of 2026?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaAmérica Latina2m
FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 90%
Não 90%Qualidade do mercado
33 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
1,1 mil €
Baixa liquidezTraders
5
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0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
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This market predicts whether former Cuban president Raúl Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody before January 1º, 2027, 03:59:00 UTC.
- If, at any point before that deadline, U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raúl Castro, regardless of location or duration, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is official information from the U.S. government (U.S. Department of Justice press releases, the FBI, the State Department, the White House) and a consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion.
- Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Castro's presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity do not qualify.
- A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Castro submits to U.S. custody does qualify.
