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Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
PolymarketRegras
This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will continue to exercise de facto control over Crimea through December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Russian or Ukrainian government statements and internationally recognized assessments regarding control of the territory.
- If Russia maintains de facto control over Crimea through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Changes in international recognition without a change in on-the-ground control will not affect resolution.
- If official statements are disputed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations and reputable international monitoring bodies.