PolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Nee 94%+0.5pt
Marktkwaliteit
≤49 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 824,1
Lage liquiditeitBied / Laat
5.0% / 7.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Gematigde spreadReacties
1
7d wijziging
-1.5 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
23 apr 26, 22:20 UTC31 mrt 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Recession this year?
KalshiUK Recession in 2026?
PolymarketUS recession by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 96,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 656,2K
- 24u volume
- € 85,1K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 386K
- 24u volume
- € 25,6K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 29,4K
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket prijst No op 94% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Japan recession in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Japan recession in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 maart 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Japan recession in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Polymarket wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.