Religie

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

2mnd

Ja1%

Nee99%

Hoge kwaliteit (87)Strakke spreadHoge liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 66,7 mln.

24u volumeUS$ 9K

POLYMARKET

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

2mnd

Argentina96%

Peru92%

Uruguay90%

+9 extra uitkomsten

Gemiddelde kwaliteit (55)Gematigde spreadHoge open interestDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 230K

24u volumeUS$ 103

KALSHI

Who will the next Pope be?

Luis Antonio Tagle15%

Pietro Parolin6%

Pierbattista Pizzaballa5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Lage kwaliteit (≤49)Strakke spreadHoge open interest

Totaal volumeUS$ 146,2K

24u volume—

KALSHI

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

0.2 pt (24u)2mnd

Ja5%-0.2pt

Nee95%+0.2pt

Gemiddelde kwaliteit (66)Strakke spreadGemiddelde liquiditeitDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 24,6K

24u volumeUS$ 60,8

POLYMARKET

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Before Jan 1, 2027

2mnd

Ja4%

Nee96%

Lage kwaliteit (≤49)Gematigde spreadGemiddelde open interestDicht bij afwikkeling

Totaal volumeUS$ 22K

24u volume—

KALSHI

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

2mnd

Ja10%

Nee90%

Lage kwaliteit (33)Spread onbekendLage liquiditeitDunne markt

Totaal volumeUS$ 106,7

24u volume—

FUTUUR

Vatican III in 2026?

2mnd

Ja14%

Nee86%

Lage kwaliteit (32)Brede spreadLage liquiditeitDunne markt

Totaal volumeUS$ 17,5

24u volume—

POLYMARKET

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

2mnd

Ja4%

Nee96%

Lage kwaliteit (31)Spread onbekendLage liquiditeitDunne markt

Totaal volumeUS$ 0,1

24u volume—

FUTUUR

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

2j

Ja72.3%

Nee27.7%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling263 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

3j

Ja42%

Nee58%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling4 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

17d

Ja3.6%

Nee96.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling49 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI Cult exists by 2027

6mnd

Ja75.9%

Nee24.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling182 voorspellersType: binary

16 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

2mnd

Ja12.5%

Nee87.5%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling51 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

2mnd

Ja7.8%

Nee92.2%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling28 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

2j

Ja2.2%

Nee97.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling192 voorspellersType: binary

8 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

3j

Chicago, IL8.3%

New Orleans, LA8.3%

St. Louis, MO8.3%

+9 extra uitkomsten

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: multiple choice

13 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Buddhist50%

Hindu50%

Jain50%

+1 extra uitkomsten

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: multiple choice

12 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

1j

Ja46.6%

Nee53.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling21 voorspellersType: binary

16 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

2025-203010%

2031-204010%

2041-205010%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: multiple choice

17 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

2mnd

Old Catholic17.5%

ICAB14.5%

Liberal Catholic14.5%

+4 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: multiple choice

9 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

9j

202821.9%

202915.1%

20279.7%

+7 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: multiple choice

9 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s33.7%

2030s11.5%

2020s1%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: multiple choice

9 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

2040s13.9%

2030s5.4%

2020s2%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: multiple choice

16 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

2mnd

Increase in Wars and Rumors of Wars (Matthew 24:6-7)11.9%

Preparation for the Third Temple (Daniel 9:27, Matthew 24:15)8.4%

Rise of the Antichrist (2 Thessalonians 2:3-4)6%

+14 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: multiple choice

13 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Ja50%

Nee50%

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will god is real?

2mnd

Ja50%

Nee50%

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

2j

Ja50%

Nee50%

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

4j

Ja50%

Nee50%

GemeenschapsvoorspellingType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

1j

Ja14.2%

Nee85.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: binary

14 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

19j

Ja45.2%

Nee54.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: binary

12 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Alexander20.3%

Leo8.9%

Francis4.4%

+9 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling8 voorspellersType: multiple choice

5 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

2mnd

conventional Protestantism23.6%

Catholicism/Eastern Orthodoxy/Oriental Orthodoxy20.1%

Buddhism8.7%

+6 extra uitkomsten

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling5 voorspellersType: multiple choice

7 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

2mnd

Ja90.6%

Nee9.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling25 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

19j

Ja43.1%

Nee56.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

6j

Ja50%

Nee50%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Ja20%

Nee80%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling1 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Ja40.5%

Nee59.5%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: binary

16 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

3j

Ja48.2%

Nee51.8%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

4j

Ja90.1%

Nee9.9%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling2 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Ja47.9%

Nee52.1%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Ja45.3%

Nee54.7%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: binary

2 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

3j

Ja31.6%

Nee68.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: binary

13 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3mnd

Ja13.5%

Nee86.5%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Ja5.8%

Nee94.2%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling3 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

3j

Ja70%

Nee30%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling4 voorspellersType: binary

10 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

3mnd

Ja17.7%

Nee82.3%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling4 voorspellersType: binary

17 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Ja5.6%

Nee94.4%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling4 voorspellersType: binary

15 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

Ja61.3%

Nee38.7%

Gemeenschapsvoorspelling5 voorspellersType: binary

1 uur geleden

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

Who will the next Pope be?

Sydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?

Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?

Vatican III in 2026?

Pope to allow women to preach masses by the end of 2026?

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Will there be a trend spike for the term "Maitreya" before 2030?

Will the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem be destroyed by the end of Netanyahu's current term?

AI Cult exists by 2027

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

When will the next ecumenical council of the Roman Catholic Church be held?

If Hildebrand, the antipope elected by Bugnolo, is consecrated, which episcopal lineage will the consecrator have?

Wanneer gaat Timon zich bekeren?

When is a millennial (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

When is a zoomer (or younger) Catholic pope first elected?

Which biblical prophecy will be most frequently cited as being fulfilled by world events before January 1, 2027?

Come Judgment Day, will Jose Luis Ricon enter hell due to being heathen?

Will god is real?

Special ecclesial assembly approved by Francis held in October 2028?

Will Domenic Denicola attend a Mormon Transhumanism Association (MTA) conference by EOY2030?

Will "Why You Don’t Believe in Xhosa Prophecies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will Andres Gomez Emilson or Joscha Bach watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on 5-MEO-DMT by EOY2045

What will be the papal name of Leo XIV's successor?

Which religion will I identify with at the end of the year?

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Will Barton Rhodes or Alex Zhu watch the crucifixion of Jesus Christ while high on psychedelics by EOY2045

Will Lillian Tara have her own personal army/cult by EOY 2032?

Will Vincent Weisser be canonized as a saint? (St. Weisser)

Will basedbeffjezos end up crucified? (nailed to the cross)

Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?

Will the LDS (Mormon) Church publicly report membership numbers through 2030?

Will @repligate/janus have an arranged marriage?

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Will the "core" Jewish population of the UK be greater than that of Canada by 2030?

Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Jose Luis Ricon be beatified?

Will the Hindu population of the UK be more than 4 times the Jewish population of the UK by 2030?

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the Catholic Church canonize Jose Luis Ricon as a saint by 2100?

Are ancient afterlife myths interpretations of near death experiences?

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