Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 88.2%
Voorspellers
28
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mrt 23, 20:53 UTC2 mei 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegels
The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
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POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 88% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? afgewikkeld?
- Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? wordt naar verwachting op 2 mei 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The resolves "YES" if by the market close date, there is a publically-downloadable full formal proof of the modularity theorem (formerly known as the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture) in a theorem-proving language such as Coq, Lean, or Isabelle.