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Nee 72%
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41
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd10 okt 24, 01:58 UTC1 jan 30, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.
- Update 2026-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The catastrophe must be a single discrete incident, not a series of related actions or impacts.
- A series of AI-driven attacks that collectively exceed the damage threshold would not qualify.
- Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The number of individual attacks that caused a grid failure or similar event is not relevant to determining whether it was a single event.
- The creator will defer to moderators' consensus in ambiguous cases.
Open markten
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 18,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 916K
- 24u volume
- € 1,5K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 863,6K
- 24u volume
- € 1K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 72% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: By “massive catastrophe”, I mean any disaster that has caused at least 1,000,000 deaths or US$100 billion in damage directly attributable to AI, for example a pandemic virus engineered with the help of AI, or a cyberattack taking down some electrical grid.