Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl)?

Manifold Markets prijst No op 76.6% per 25 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl) afgewikkeld?

Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl) wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will there be a serious incident caused by AI before 2030? (AI Chernobyl) afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: single, connected incident (not a gradual process)

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POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029-1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

Totaal volume

€ 388,3K

24u volume

€ 65,8K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.0pt53.1%
• Gemini-4.0pt34.8%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88.5%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 898,1K

24u volume

€ 41,7K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt29.4%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.1pt18.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.7pt17.6%

+7 extra uitkomsten

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