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Ja 66%
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26
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd28 aug 23, 20:59 UTC31 dec 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Mexico go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRegels
This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).
- [image]I define Western Europe as something like the EU prior to the admission of Poland (minus Greece, plus Switzerland, Norway), but I don't expect to litigate the concept; the economies are highly correlated and the big countries will drive the result.
Open markten
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 66% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This will be resolved based on the percentage difference in GDP per person in US dollars at purchase power parity (PPP).