Will China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
EconomieOne-OffGezondheid en geneeskundeSchakenGeopolitiekChinaSport4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 73.3%
Voorspellers
9
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd17 aug 26, 06:01 UTC31 dec 30, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before the end of December 31, 2030, China enters an economic recession that is widely attributed to industrial overcapacity.
- For the purposes of this market, an economic recession in China is defined by meeting at least one of the following conditions:
- Negative GDP Growth: China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports negative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (either quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year) for at least two consecutive quarters.
- Institutional/Multilateral Declaration: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or a consensus of leading financial news outlets (specifically Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Financial Times) explicitly declares that China has entered a "recession" (including a "balance sheet recession" or "structural recession").
- To satisfy the condition "induced by overcapacity":
