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Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
14.2 ptn (24u)One-OffWetenschapSamenleving en cultuur
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%+14.2ptKoploper van 4 uitkomsten
2%+ (Resolves start of 2027) 69.6%+14.2ptVoorspellers
6
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+14.2 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 17 uur geleden
Verouderd10 nov 23, 19:48 UTC2 jan 00, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Resolves annually to Metaculus' community prediction.
- Feel free to add new years and integer thresholds in a matching format.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/578/?theme=light)