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Verouderd7 mei 23, 02:00 UTC31 dec 29, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2029
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.3% in June 2027?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExRegels
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
Open markten
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,7K
- 24u volume
- € 10,7K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Totaal volume
- € 612,5K
- 24u volume
- € 6,9K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,3K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 75% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2029 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE