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Verouderd3 sep 26, 04:14 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.
- It is the first model any lab has affirmatively described this way.
- This market asks whether a second developer says it before the year ends.
- Resolves YES if: between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, an AI developer other than OpenAI publicly and affirmatively states that one of its models has either:
- (a) reached the top cybersecurity or cyber-offense capability tier under that company's own published risk framework (e.g. Google DeepMind announcing a model reached its cyberattack Critical Capability Level, or Anthropic announcing a cyber capability threshold requiring its highest safeguards); or
- (b) regardless of tier labels or frameworks, become capable of all four of the following together: discovering previously unknown vulnerabilities, developing functional working exploits for them, against hardened or well-protected real-world systems, without a human directing each step.
Open markten
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 66% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? afgewikkeld?
- Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.