Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffAITech3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 59.4%
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Verouderd18 aug 26, 03:44 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 59% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.