Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2028 27.9%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
5
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+16.8 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd6 sep 26, 23:44 UTC1 jan 37, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
FutuurUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRegels
This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).
- The official source of truth is the "Debt to the Penny" dataset published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Fiscal Data website: Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data .
- Metric: The specific data field to determine the resolution is Total Public Debt Outstanding.
- Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the exact date listed in the "Record Date" column of the first Treasury entry displaying a value of $50,000,000,000,000.00 or greater.
- The U.S. national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion threshold on August 18, 2026, several years ahead of initial Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.
- This rapid escalation has been fueled by persistent budget deficits, high interest rates, and growing mandatory spending.
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 541,2K
- 24u volume
- € 30,7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 334,2K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 77,9K
- 24u volume
- € 5,5K
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2028 op 28% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? afgewikkeld?
- When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2037 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).