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Verouderd3 feb 25, 09:46 UTC1 jan 41, 04:59 UTC
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When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 5 years?
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Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRegels
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.