Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingIt will be released by January 2027 100%Koploper van 9 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
42
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+24.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd25 mrt 26, 18:11 UTC31 dec 26, 19:10 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRegels
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,1 mln.
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model??
- Manifold Markets prijst It will be released by January 2027 op 100% per 15 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? afgewikkeld?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".