Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 86.5%
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7
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 21 uur geleden
Verouderd7 aug 25, 09:01 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Macrogevoelige Assets
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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KalshiRegels
The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.
- According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department officials are weighing a plan that would charge patent holders 1% to 5% of a patent’s overall value annually—departing from the traditional fixed-fee system in place for over 235 years.
- If implemented, this change could massively increase costs for companies like IBM, Apple, and Samsung, which hold thousands of high-value patents across AI, semiconductors, and biotech.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. federal government enacts a law or regulation that introduces a variable annual fee based on a patent’s value (e.g., a percentage of assessed or declared value) instead of—or in addition to—the traditional fixed-fee structure.
- The new pricing model must be active and enforceable (not just proposed) before the resolution date.
Open markten
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 91 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 569,7K
- 24u volume
- € 47,4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 359,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 79,7K
- 24u volume
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 18,3K
- 24u volume
- € 7,3K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 87% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? afgewikkeld?
- US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The U.S. government is considering a major overhaul of the patent fee model.