Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingExplicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) 92.4%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
11
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd4 mrt 26, 18:36 UTC1 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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PolymarketRegels
Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?
- Independent.
- Each answer resolves YES/NO on its own. “At least once” means any single qualifying occurrence in the window triggers YES.
- Only publicly observable official statements/actions and authoritative technical bodies/monitoring (or reporting that clearly cites them) count.
- Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran)
- Resolves YES if an official U.S. or Iranian government statement uses explicit nuclear wording (e.g., “nuclear,” “atomic,” “nuclear weapons,” “nuclear forces”) and also names the other party (“Iran” or “United States/U.S./America”) in the same statement.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026?
- Manifold Markets prijst Explicit nuclear reference (U.S. or Iran) op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt U.S. – Iran nuclear milestones in 2026 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Which of the following will occur at least once between March 4th and Dec 31, 2026 23:59 ET?