Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 75%
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9
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 26, 08:36 UTC31 dec 32, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
OpenAI fails financially before Dec 31 2032.
- Settlement criteria: if one or more of the following happens before the deadline, the claim resolves to YES.
- (1) Acquisition for severe discount.
- OpenAI is purchased by another firm for a valuation that is less than half of its 2025 valuation (US$500 billion 2025 dollars.) (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/openai-share-sale-500-billion-valuation.html) Purchase price will be inflation adjusted to compare with the 2025 valuation.
- (2) OpenAI cannot pay its bills and fails to provide services.
- OpenAI becomes like pets.com in the early 2000s.
