Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingScores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science 98.9%+48.9ptKoploper van 10 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
25
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+48.9 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
3 sep 26, 1:542 okt 26, 22:59
Trends
Regels
All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.
- In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)
- [link preview]
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- September 30-0.1pt99%
- October 31+0.6pt99%
- September 15+0.6pt98%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 457,4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-4.0pt59.2%
- ChatGPT-1.3pt24.3%
- Grok+0.9pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7 mln.
POLYMARKETGPT-6 released by which date?
- October 31,+9.1pt100%
- November 30,+6.8pt100%
- December 31,+5.5pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETOpenAI's Astra released on?
- September 4+27.7pt37%
- September 17+22.2pt23%
- September 24+22.1pt23%
+27 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude-10.0pt76.5%
- ChatGPT+5.0pt16.7%
- Gemini+2.0pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 149,2K
KALSHIWhen will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- Before Sep 16, 2026+14.0pt99%
- Before Oct 1, 2026+9.0pt99%
- Before Nov 1, 2026+6.0pt99%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Which week will OpenAI release Astra?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- AI capability growth this year?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor OpenAI Astra Prop Bets?
- Manifold Markets prijst Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science op 99% per 4 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt OpenAI Astra Prop Bets afgewikkeld?
- OpenAI Astra Prop Bets wordt naar verwachting op 2 oktober 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt OpenAI Astra Prop Bets afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them.