Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 90.5%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd10 dec 23, 22:10 UTC2 jan 32, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsWill the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dark Matter still be real at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegels
Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).
- This market resolves to YES if two or more studies are published in either Science or the Nature family of journals by Jan. 1, 2032 that support the hypothesis that large igneous provinces are triggered by dark matter.
- The link between dark matter and volcanism must be one of the core parts of the article.
- (that is, it doesn't count if the hypothesis is just mentioned off-hand).
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 226,3K
- 24u volume
- € 125,2K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 108,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Is volcanism caused by dark matter??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Is volcanism caused by dark matter? afgewikkeld?
- Is volcanism caused by dark matter? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2032 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Is volcanism caused by dark matter? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).