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Nee 71.4%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd30 okt 22, 16:44 UTC1 jan 00, 08:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegels
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter
- This resolves once we have a definitive explanation for dark matter that is not contested by any significant fraction of the physics community.
- In the event that the phrase "dark matter" comes to mean something else (such as our observational methods improving to the point where we can directly detect some forms of dark matter and we no longer call them "dark"), the 2022 definition is what will matter for the purposes of resolving this market.
- In the event that dark matter doesn't exist (e.g. modified Newtonian dynamics), this resolves N/A. I'll be pretty liberal in terms of what counts as "matter" though, in the event of disagreement over whether some new particle should qualify.
Open markten
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 211K
- 24u volume
- € 110,5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 21,3K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
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- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor What percentage of dark matter is baryonic??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 71% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? afgewikkeld?
- What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter