In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
0.2 ptn (24u)One-OffWetenschapCryptoManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptKoploper van 6 uitkomsten
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden
23 mrt 25, 14:56 UTC1 jan 01, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2025-2034 op 31% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? afgewikkeld?
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2101 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.