If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?
EconomieOne-OffPolitiekAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing4j
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 20 minuten geleden
7 okt 26, 02:52 UTC15 feb 31, 17:00 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?
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Manifold MarketsIf a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2030?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiRegels
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2029 or 2030.
- Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count.
- Resolves once the Q4 2030 advance estimate is out.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028.
