If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing4j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 08:35 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
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Verouderd7 okt 26, 02:53 UTC3 jan 31, 17:00 UTC
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If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2031?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Senate eliminate the legislative filibuster in 2026?
PredictItTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRegels
Condition: the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2031, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it, such as voting-rights bills) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture.
- Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Republican wins the presidency in 2028.
