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KalshiRegels
This event predicts whether any member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will formally withdraw from the alliance at any time during calendar year 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official withdrawal notifications or statements issued by NATO or by a member state formally invoking withdrawal procedures.
- If any NATO member formally announces and completes its withdrawal from NATO during 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Political statements expressing dissatisfaction, threats to withdraw, or partial non-compliance without formal withdrawal will not count.
- If official communications are ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations citing NATO or the withdrawing state.