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This event predicts whether the Russian Federation will continue to exercise de facto control over Crimea through December 31, 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official Russian or Ukrainian government statements and internationally recognized assessments regarding control of the territory.
- If Russia maintains de facto control over Crimea through the end of December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Changes in international recognition without a change in on-the-ground control will not affect resolution.
- If official statements are disputed, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations and reputable international monitoring bodies.
