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  1. Voorspellingsmarkten
  2. Geopolitiek
  3. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

One-OffGeopolitiekRussia / Ukraine6mnd
PolymarketPolymarketBeschikbaarheid controlerenGeen KYC2% kosten
Huidige impliciete kans
Ja
Ja 27%
Marktkwaliteit

80 / 100

Hoge kwaliteit
24u volume

€ 985

Liquiditeit

€ 59,8K

Hoge liquiditeit
Bied / Laat

26.0% / 27.0%

Spread

3.9%

Gematigde spread
7d wijziging

-4.0%

Marktdata

Bijgewerkt 4 minuten geleden

5 nov 25, 18:0631 dec 26, 0:00

Trends

Uitkomst24uKans

Gekozen uitkomst

Yes27%

Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

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Regels

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
  • Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
  • The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
  • Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.