PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 80.6%+4.5ptIn testa tra 7 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
81 / 100
Alta qualitàVolume 24h
4,7K €
Liquidità
188K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
2
Variazione 7g
+8.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
8 lug 26, 18:53 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
- If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “the named outcome.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.