PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
45%+ 96%-0.4ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Qualità del mercato
62 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,7K €
Liquidità
3,1K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-21.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
17 ago 26, 23:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
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PolymarketWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Polymarket quota 45%+ al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.