Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 97.3%
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto28 feb 26, 19:36 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
Manifold MarketsWill post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a third global conflict meeting the definition of World War III begins before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on Thursday, November 19, 2026.
- For resolution purposes, World War III is defined as a hypothetical, catastrophic global conflict involving major powers and widespread military engagement across multiple continents.
- The conflict must be formally declared or widely recognized by international media and governments as constituting a third world war.
- Proxy wars, regional conflicts, cyberattacks, or terrorism alone do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if November 19, 2026 passes without such a conflict beginning.
