Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)?

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 59.1% al 25 ottobre 2026.

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati

Dati al 25 ott 2026, 21:13 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 59.1%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 4 ore fa

Obsoleto

2 dic 25, 19:02 UTC30 dic 35, 18:53 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.