Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UcrainaCinaAmerica LatinaMedio OrienteSalute e medicina3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.5%
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto1 giu 23, 06:33 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.
