Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / UcrainaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 52%
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2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 37 minuti fa
10 ago 26, 10:21 UTC1 gen 27, 03:59 UTC
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Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one Ukrainian drone—including uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—impacts, crashes, or explodes on the land territory or within the territorial waters of the Kaliningrad Oblast before the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends.
- This includes drones that are intercepted or shot down by Russian air defenses but whose debris subsequently crashes on Kaliningrad territory.
- "Before the war is over" is defined as prior to the official implementation of a mutually recognized ceasefire, the signing of a bilateral peace treaty, or the formal conclusion of the active military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as widely reported by credible international consensus.
- If the war concludes without any Ukrainian drone making physical contact with Kaliningrad territory, this market resolves to NO.
- Preemptive measures, such as the declaration of "drone threats," airspace closures, or GPS spoofing, do not qualify as a "hit" unless physical impact or debris contact on Kaliningrad territory is confirmed.