Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Politica commercialeOne-OffElezioneGeopoliticaAmerica LatinaPolitica USAPolitica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.1%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto16 giu 26, 15:00 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States under the presidential administration of Donald Trump officially annexes any portion of Brazilian territory or conducts unauthorized military action against or within Brazil.
- Specifically:
- Annexation is defined as the United States officially claiming sovereignty, annexing, or establishing a formal protectorate over any portion of Brazil's internationally recognized territory, codified by a U.S. executive order, presidential proclamation, federal law, or treaty signed by Donald Trump.
- Military Action is defined as a kinetic military operation (including but not limited to airstrikes, drone strikes, missile launches, naval blockades, or ground troop incursions) conducted by the United States Armed Forces within Brazil’s internationally recognized land borders, territorial waters, or airspace.
- To qualify, the military action must be directed against targets (including state forces, infrastructure, or local non-state actors/gangs) without the explicit consent or written invitation of the internationally recognized federal government of Brazil.
