Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 76.2%
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23
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo16 mag 26, 19:03 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?
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KalshiRegole
Mythos class AI has brought fears of a cyberpocalypse where AI systems hack the entire internet.
- This question attempts to quantify the danger.
- Resolves to CVEs as per https://nvd.nist.gov/vuln/search#/nvd/home?resultType=statistics
- To quantify "many more" I took the trend (not counting 2026 as it's not over yet) and tried to extrapolate where it would be in 2027.
- Given that in 2025 there was still no Mythos or GPT-5.5 I consider those numbers to be "untainted" by AI assistance.
- According to analyses by chatgpt-5.5-thinking (which didn't know what the numbers are referring to so as not to bias it's thinking) above 90k would be "suspiciously high", therefore, this resolves YES if NIST reports more than or equal to 90,000 CVEs in 2027.
