Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)
CustomIAGeopoliticaTecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 58.3%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 25, 19:42 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)
Manifold MarketsWill a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
Manifold MarketsWill there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump buying Greenland, how much will the US pay?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Prediction #2 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
- Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will not be extended beyond the current close date (2030-12-31), even if ASI arrives later.
- The prediction requires the event to happen fairly soon as part of the AI 2027 scenario timeframe.
- If resolution is unclear, the creator will defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation or resolve via poll.
