Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 53.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 25, 19:47 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Top Open Source AI this week
KalshiWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Manifold MarketsWill POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)?
- Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Prediction #4 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander