Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
IAOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 79.9%
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Aggiornato 41 minuti fa
8 apr 25, 19:50 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
- Must be a state of the art model, used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- Update 2025-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will likely defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation if he writes about this topic in the future.
- Otherwise, the guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are unable to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- The creator stated this would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 80% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander