Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 52.6%
Sì 52.6%Previsori
43
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto18 mag 23, 22:12 UTC21 apr 00, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf there is a civil war in America starting before 2030, who will win?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegole
A violent revolution for this question is defined as a definable movement pitting the populus against the government.
- This would involve the participation of at least 1% of the populace.
- A civil war is defined as an armed malitia or state backed group representing at least 1 million citicens going to war with the US military.
- The specifics of these definitions may be changed within a few weeks of creating the market by participants request , but my goal is to to keep them in line as much as possible with their actual definitions.