Previsione della comunità attuale
No 95.2%
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto15 ott 23, 11:07 UTC1 gen 35, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegole
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Venus must occur within a distance of no more than 10 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v (this question)
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035??
- Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Venus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.