Previsione della comunità attuale
No 72%
Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto25 dic 23, 13:02 UTC1 mar 35, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 (this question)
Mercati aperti
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 72% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035??
- Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 marzo 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035.