Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

IAOne-OffRegolamentazione China1a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 18 lug 2026, 13:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 giorni fa

Obsoleto

8 lug 26, 14:4331 dic 27, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Trend del volume

$200

8 lug4g di dati18 lug

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155 €

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KALSHI

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

3,7K €

Before Sep 1, 2026: 1%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

878,4 €

Sì: 14.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$66,281.06+1.74%

EthereumETH$1,918.22+1.02%

SolanaSOL$77.86+0.43%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0731+1.60%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.51%

BNBBNB$572.15+0.38%

Notizie Correlate

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Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Regole

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Will the US restrict US companies from using Chinese open models

IAOne-OffRegolamentazione China1a

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti

Dati al 18 lug 2026, 13:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2

Previsione della comunità attuale

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production 70.9%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 3 giorni fa

Obsoleto

8 lug 26, 14:4331 dic 27, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Ban use of open Chinese models by government applications in production71%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.

Trend del volume

$200

8 lug4g di dati18 lug

Mercati Correlati

Will the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?

1,1K €

Sì: 26%

KALSHI

鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?

155 €

A. 截止日前无任何官方处理结论(仍在调查/不了了之): 3.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027?

0 €

Sì: 99%

KALSHI

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

3,7K €

Before Sep 1, 2026: 1%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

878,4 €

Sì: 14.3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$66,281.06+1.74%

EthereumETH$1,918.22+1.02%

SolanaSOL$77.86+0.43%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0731+1.60%

XRPXRP$1.14+2.51%

BNBBNB$572.15+0.38%

Notizie Correlate

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

Russia passes landmark crypto bill allowing regulated retail tradingThe Block

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk

Regole

A ban or restriction has to come from the federal government (any branch) and has to actually go into effect.

If a ban is announced but the effective date is in 2028, I'll extend the close date to it's effective date.
I'll buffer to allow for legal challenges within 1 month of effective date (eg: if ban goes into effect Jan 1, but court blocks on Jan 5, I won't count that as a ban).
I will not bet so I can subjectively decide if narrow exceptions count.
For the types of exceptions I can imagine:
company size limits still count: "companies over X employees can't use Y model" is a ban.