Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?
ChinaIAOne-OffTecnologia1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 81.2%
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Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto31 mag 26, 05:28 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.
- Resolves NO otherwise (including if no US open-weights model is listed).
- - Open-weights model: weights publicly downloadable to self-host.
- API-only/proprietary models do not count. - US-developed labs include Google (Gemma), OpenAI (gpt-oss), Meta (Llama), NVIDIA (Nemotron), Microsoft (Phi), AI2 (OLMo), and any other US-headquartered org. - China-developed labs include DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), Zhipu (GLM), and any other China-headquartered org. - Comparison is by leaderboard position among open-weights models only; only the standing on the resolution date counts (briefly leading earlier does not). - Source: LMArena text leaderboard.
- If it is discontinued or materially changes format, this resolves via the closest equivalent public, community-vote-based general-purpose LLM leaderboard, at the creator's reasonable discretion.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if, as displayed on December 31, 2027, the highest-ranked US-developed open-weights model on the LMArena text leaderboard (default "Overall" text view, lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is ranked above every China-developed open-weights model.