Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ucraina1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 84.1%
No 84.1%Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto9 gen 25, 03:06 UTC2 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Will the military conflict cause release of nuclear material.
- This includes from damage to a nuclear plant or the accidental or intentional release of radiological material from a weapon (eg. "dirty bomb").
- This of course includes detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon.
- Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES only for direct causes from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically:
- Nuclear disasters caused by Ukraine, Russia, or other belligerent countries directly participating in the conflict
- Does not include indirect consequences such as nuclear proliferation to other countries as a result of the conflict