Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94.7%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto4 feb 25, 08:45 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Santa Rosa, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Polymarket[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Some people on the right have made noise about restricting the NWS from providing weather forecasts in the past, and with Trump back in office, they may try to do so again.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the National Weather Service stops providing weather forecasts to the U.S. public before January 1, 2027.
- Specifically, this will resolve YES if the NWS does not provide forecasts, or provides forecasts limited to the following 72 hours or less, to areas of the U.S. representing a majority of Americans, for a period of at least one week.
- This includes both their website (weather.gov) and official forecast products.
- The market will resolve NO if NOAA continues to provide weather forecasts through 2026.
- Temporary interruptions in service due to technical issues or government shutdowns will not count as stopping forecasts.
