Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 75.4%
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56
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto10 ott 23, 17:11 UTC2 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Metaculus] Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will 14-day weather forecasts reach 60% accuracy?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketWill the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Escambia, Florida in 2026? (tropical cyclone) (storm) (weather)?
ForecastExRegole
This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2029, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports that the day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.
- Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.
- If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.
- The question will resolve as No if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag.
- In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as N/A.
